Global Fossil CO2 Emissions Projected to Drop by 0.4% in 2026

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, totaling 38.2 billion tonnes of CO2. This shift is driven by a combination of rapid expansion in solar and wind power and a 1.9% drop in oil emissions linked to energy shocks from the Iran conflict.

Drivers of the 2026 Emission Decline

The projected decrease in fossil CO2 emissions is a result of both structural shifts and immediate geopolitical events. While global energy demand continues to rise, two-thirds of that increase is being met by the rapid expansion of solar and wind power alongside the adoption of electric vehicles.

The image illustrates the expansion of solar power mentioned as a key factor in reducing fossil fuel emissions.

A significant portion of the decline in oil emissions is linked to the Iran conflict, which triggered a short-term energy shock. Additionally, emissions from international aviation and shipping are both projected to decrease by 1%, partly due to reduced activity in the Middle East.

“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,”

— Fossil CO2 emissions decrease in 2026

The Gap Between Growth and Sustainability

Despite the drop in fossil fuel emissions, the report finds that clean energy growth is not yet fast enough to ensure a durable, long-term decline. While 59 countries reduced emissions in 2025 while growing their economies, the current pace of deployment remains a bottleneck.

The impact of electric vehicles is growing but remains limited by the time required to replace existing vehicle stocks. As of 2025, only about 10% of the car fleet was electrified (or 6% excluding hybrids).

Land-Use Changes and Carbon Sinks

Total CO2 emissions are expected to rise this year because emissions from land-use change, such as deforestation, are projected to reach 5.1 billion tonnes. This is driven by human-ignited peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia, exacerbated by drier conditions linked to El Niño.

While reforestation and afforestation efforts in China, the EU27, and the USA remove 0.8 billion tonnes of CO2 annually, these gains are still more than offset by permanent deforestation, which remains high at approximately 3.8 billion tonnes per year.

Remaining Challenges and Uncertainties

A critical limitation identified in the research is the current state of carbon removal. Novel carbon dioxide removal technologies, excluding conventional methods like reforestation, currently offset less than 30 minutes of annual fossil CO2 emissions.

The report notes that a one-year drop in emissions does not constitute a peak unless driven by structural change. Researchers emphasize that further acceleration of clean technology deployment is required to lock in a sustained decline in global emissions.

Pull Quote

"A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution," said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, who led the study. (primary)