The IMF's twice-yearly Global Financial Stability Report, released on 13 October 2026, identifies an AI share price crash as one of three 'salient risks' to global financial stability. Athanasios Vamvakidis, deputy director of the IMF's monetary and capital department, said that global exposure to US AI assets is at its highest level ever, warning that 'the consequences of an AI correction could be global' with Asian markets most exposed beyond the United States.
The report links the risk to two interconnected factors: the sky‑high valuations of AI companies and their rapidly rising debt levels used to fund sector investments. It notes that the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) now account for more than 35% of the S&P 500 share index in the US, up from 12% a decade ago, and their combined market capitalisation has grown over 50% in the past two years, while additional leverage comes from corporate borrowing, hedge‑fund investments and retail investors borrowing to speculate in AI stocks.
While warning of potential global spillovers, the IMF also presents countervailing evidence that the AI rollout may not require the massive scale of investment currently being undertaken by hyperscalers and that potential economic gains may be smaller than expected. It cites $300 bn of transactions between hyperscalers and weaker AI firms plus $650 bn of debt exchanged for $1.4 tn of future financial commitments over the past three years as examples of circular financing that could exacerbate a market downturn.